Sept 9 2024
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Q. At times it seems that neither PM Netanyahu nor Hamas leader Sinwar really wants a hostage-for-prisoner exchange deal. Why? What don’t we understand about their value systems?
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A. Let’s start with Sinwar. Following Hamas’s barbaric October 7 attack on Israel’s Gaza Periphery, I assessed that Sinwar had a number of objectives. One was to restore the Palestinian struggle, led by Hamas, to a position of primacy in world public opinion. Mission accomplished. Another was to torpedo efforts to form a US-Saudi-Israeli-led front against Iran and its proxies, among them Hamas. Here the Iranian-led Resistance Front has a mixed record.
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Yet a third objective was, in my understanding, to free Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. Sinwar himself, after all, was freed in a 2011 prisoner exchange and had frequently expressed his commitment to freeing those left behind at that time. This was Hamas’s presumed reason for taking so many hostages on October 7.
Yet in the November 2023 exchange--the only one to date--Hamas released around 100 hostages in return for only Palestinian women and juvenile prisoners held by Israel. Currently Hamas has negotiated the release of hundreds of hard-core terrorists from Israeli jails in return for only a portion of the hostages (meaning yet another deal will still be negotiable), yet balks at fulfilling the deal due to objections regarding IDF deployment in the Strip and demands for yet more imprisoned terrorists.
Either Sinwar fancies himself a master negotiator, or the release of his fellow Hamas terrorists is less urgent to him than I thought. It can wait while Hamas’s Iranian and Hezbollah allies ostensibly craft an Islamist Resistance Front victory over Israel that dwarfs October 7. Alternatively, it can wait while Israeli society fragments even further.
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Yossi Alpher's Death Tango: Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat and Three Fateful Days in March
"Anyone seeking to understand how Israelis and Palestinians traded the hopes of Oslo for something approaching hopelessness is well-advised to read this book. With penetrating analysis and elegant prose, Yossi Alpher has told the gripping story of three days nearly two decades ago that continue to haunt would-be peacemakers. Yossi’s faithful readers will not be disappointed with his latest effort."
Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, Bard College
"A riveting account of the crucial days in March 2002 when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was profoundly changed for the worse. The peace camp has never recovered from those wrenching days, and we live now without any hope of a just settlement. Alpher is a highly respected expert who has spent decades studying this conflict from both sides."
Bruce Riedel, Director of the Brookings Intelligence Project
"A critical assessment of a key period in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict never before presented in such detail. The best and most capable players at the executive and political levels proved unable to forge any resolution, final or partial, because both parties continued to maintain an insurmountable gulf between themselves. This is a MUST read for anyone daring to tackle the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and of Israel-Arab relations in general."
Efraim Halevy, former Head of the Mossad (1998-2002)
Oraib Khader and Avi Bar-On are youngish Palestinian and Israeli bachelors with security experience, readiness to do business with one another, a shared fondness for women and money, and total cynicism about the lack of peace between their two peoples.
Oraib and Avi can never become true friends: the cultural and political gaps are too wide. But as they confront a failed peace process and a bleak peace future, they readily become business partners: shady business that exploits a lot of naïve international peace aspirations.
As Oraib sums up on a visit to Sarpsborg, Norway, where the ultimately-failed Oslo peace talks were held, “There is a lesson here for those who still doggedly and hopelessly pursue a two-state solution in the Middle East. Get smart. Get out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace business. Step back and let the Jews and Arabs screw one another while making money.”