Column: New Jewish Narrative
Early warning: three years ago and last week
Oct 5, 2026
Q. In recent weeks we have been flooded with reliable reports on the October 7, 2023 early warnings from Arab neighbors that Netanyahu seemingly ignored. There has to be more to the story . . .
A. It emerges that a lot of people in positions of authority and responsibility ignored a lot of warnings of attack by Hamas and other Islamists. Netanyahu himself was warned by his own security heads but also by Arab leaders. Now it turns out he was even warned by Gazan Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
Because Netanyahu has refused to appoint a national commission of inquiry, the October 7 early warning issue is being amplified by the anti-Netanyahu camp as Knesset elections approach.
Anyone, myself included, who has been charged by the security community with sounding an early warning--of enemy attack or even some parallel setback like the fall of a friendly neighbor-regime--knows that the burden of responsibility leaves its psychological mark. When I left the Mossad I was given a parchment inscribed with Ezekiel’s renowned admonition: “If the watchman sees the sword coming and does not blow the trumpet to warn the people and the sword comes and takes someone’s life . . . I will hold the watchman accountable for their blood. Son of man, I have made you a watchman for the people of Israel.” Try living with that version of accountability.
Yossi Alpher's Death Tango: Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat and Three Fateful Days in March
"Anyone seeking to understand how Israelis and Palestinians traded the hopes of Oslo for something approaching hopelessness is well-advised to read this book. With penetrating analysis and elegant prose, Yossi Alpher has told the gripping story of three days nearly two decades ago that continue to haunt would-be peacemakers. Yossi’s faithful readers will not be disappointed with his latest effort."
Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, Bard College
"A riveting account of the crucial days in March 2002 when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was profoundly changed for the worse. The peace camp has never recovered from those wrenching days, and we live now without any hope of a just settlement. Alpher is a highly respected expert who has spent decades studying this conflict from both sides."
Bruce Riedel, Director of the Brookings Intelligence Project
"A critical assessment of a key period in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict never before presented in such detail. The best and most capable players at the executive and political levels proved unable to forge any resolution, final or partial, because both parties continued to maintain an insurmountable gulf between themselves. This is a MUST read for anyone daring to tackle the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and of Israel-Arab relations in general."
Efraim Halevy, former Head of the Mossad (1998-2002)
Oraib Khader and Avi Bar-On are youngish Palestinian and Israeli bachelors with security experience, readiness to do business with one another, a shared fondness for women and money, and total cynicism about the lack of peace between their two peoples.
Oraib and Avi can never become true friends: the cultural and political gaps are too wide. But as they confront a failed peace process and a bleak peace future, they readily become business partners: shady business that exploits a lot of naïve international peace aspirations.
As Oraib sums up on a visit to Sarpsborg, Norway, where the ultimately-failed Oslo peace talks were held, “There is a lesson here for those who still doggedly and hopelessly pursue a two-state solution in the Middle East. Get smart. Get out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace business. Step back and let the Jews and Arabs screw one another while making money.”