Column: New Jewish Narrative
Aug 17, 2026
Q. Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia just signed the “Mecca Agreement’ to form a security pact. Russian troops are returning to Syria. The Trump administration appears to be backing out of war with Iran over Hormuz and nuclear issues. What’s going on?
A. The best explanation for these parallel developments that I can come up with references two key developments: the American (and Israeli) failure to achieve any of their war aims against Iran: and the American and Israeli elections.
The first of these developments is presumably understood by countries in the Middle East, from Iran to Saudi Arabia, as well as by Russia, as reflecting both poor US deterrent capability and poor warfighting skills. President Trump is already telling the American electorate to make do with higher oil prices. If the United States, preoccupied with China and saturated with empty Trump threats, cannot protect Riyadh and the region from Iran, then perhaps Tehran will be impressed by Riyadh’s new friends in Ankara and Islamabad, who after all are committed under the Mecca pact to come to its aid in the event it is attacked.
The second development, elections in both the US and Israel, is one of those phenomena peculiar to democracies: they do not want to deal with war during an election campaign. This may help explain the timing of the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani pact, but implies that its impact may be of short duration.
Note that this rule applies to Israel’s other fronts besides Iran: under pressure from Trump, Israel is maintaining relative calm on both the Gaza and Lebanon fronts, too.
Yossi Alpher's Death Tango: Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat and Three Fateful Days in March
"Anyone seeking to understand how Israelis and Palestinians traded the hopes of Oslo for something approaching hopelessness is well-advised to read this book. With penetrating analysis and elegant prose, Yossi Alpher has told the gripping story of three days nearly two decades ago that continue to haunt would-be peacemakers. Yossi’s faithful readers will not be disappointed with his latest effort."
Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, Bard College
"A riveting account of the crucial days in March 2002 when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was profoundly changed for the worse. The peace camp has never recovered from those wrenching days, and we live now without any hope of a just settlement. Alpher is a highly respected expert who has spent decades studying this conflict from both sides."
Bruce Riedel, Director of the Brookings Intelligence Project
"A critical assessment of a key period in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict never before presented in such detail. The best and most capable players at the executive and political levels proved unable to forge any resolution, final or partial, because both parties continued to maintain an insurmountable gulf between themselves. This is a MUST read for anyone daring to tackle the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and of Israel-Arab relations in general."
Efraim Halevy, former Head of the Mossad (1998-2002)
Oraib Khader and Avi Bar-On are youngish Palestinian and Israeli bachelors with security experience, readiness to do business with one another, a shared fondness for women and money, and total cynicism about the lack of peace between their two peoples.
Oraib and Avi can never become true friends: the cultural and political gaps are too wide. But as they confront a failed peace process and a bleak peace future, they readily become business partners: shady business that exploits a lot of naïve international peace aspirations.
As Oraib sums up on a visit to Sarpsborg, Norway, where the ultimately-failed Oslo peace talks were held, “There is a lesson here for those who still doggedly and hopelessly pursue a two-state solution in the Middle East. Get smart. Get out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace business. Step back and let the Jews and Arabs screw one another while making money.”