June 9 2025
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Q. What is the most obvious factor linking Netanyahu’s failures on all three fronts: the coalition, the Gaza war, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions?
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A. The most obvious factor is war.
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The ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties that support Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition also support the ongoing Gaza war effort--but refuse to participate in it as soldiers. The right-messianic-settler parties support the war and covet the Gaza territory; if the war ends, they will leave the coalition.
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In other words, if the war in Gaza ends, Netanyahu’s coalition loses its right-messianic support and the government falls. On the other hand, as long as the war continues, the issues of conscription of the Haredi sector and the financial penalties that collective draft-dodging incurs for the Haredi community remain volatile and unsolvable. This virtually guarantees that the war will eventually catalyze Haredi departure from the coalition, bring it down, and usher in new elections.
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If the Haredim leave in the days ahead--a distinct possibility in view of current Knesset initiatives--Israel could witness new Knesset elections as early as October 2025. Otherwise, elections are mandated by law no later than October 2026. But Netanyahu has already hinted that continuation of the Gaza war could lead him to seek to postpone elections beyond that deadline (there is a precedent from the Yom Kippur War of October 1973).
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Yossi Alpher's Death Tango: Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat and Three Fateful Days in March
"Anyone seeking to understand how Israelis and Palestinians traded the hopes of Oslo for something approaching hopelessness is well-advised to read this book. With penetrating analysis and elegant prose, Yossi Alpher has told the gripping story of three days nearly two decades ago that continue to haunt would-be peacemakers. Yossi’s faithful readers will not be disappointed with his latest effort."
Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, Bard College
"A riveting account of the crucial days in March 2002 when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was profoundly changed for the worse. The peace camp has never recovered from those wrenching days, and we live now without any hope of a just settlement. Alpher is a highly respected expert who has spent decades studying this conflict from both sides."
Bruce Riedel, Director of the Brookings Intelligence Project
"A critical assessment of a key period in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict never before presented in such detail. The best and most capable players at the executive and political levels proved unable to forge any resolution, final or partial, because both parties continued to maintain an insurmountable gulf between themselves. This is a MUST read for anyone daring to tackle the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and of Israel-Arab relations in general."
Efraim Halevy, former Head of the Mossad (1998-2002)
Oraib Khader and Avi Bar-On are youngish Palestinian and Israeli bachelors with security experience, readiness to do business with one another, a shared fondness for women and money, and total cynicism about the lack of peace between their two peoples.
Oraib and Avi can never become true friends: the cultural and political gaps are too wide. But as they confront a failed peace process and a bleak peace future, they readily become business partners: shady business that exploits a lot of naïve international peace aspirations.
As Oraib sums up on a visit to Sarpsborg, Norway, where the ultimately-failed Oslo peace talks were held, “There is a lesson here for those who still doggedly and hopelessly pursue a two-state solution in the Middle East. Get smart. Get out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace business. Step back and let the Jews and Arabs screw one another while making money.”