Dec 9 2024
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Q. A rebel coalition has taken over large swaths of Syrian territory including the capital, Damascus. The rebels are mainly Islamist and are backed by Turkey. President Bashar Assad has fled and the Syrian army has collapsed. Iranian and Russian allied forces have abandoned the regime. What does this mean for Israel, the region, and the world?
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A. Once again, and not surprisingly, events are not unfolding as expected in the Middle East. Israel’s battlefield achievements in Lebanon and against Iran appear to have ended up, in neighboring Syria, weakening some actors and empowering others in a manner anticipated by almost none.
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This is a major strategic and intelligence surprise on all fronts--for all parties, Israel included, with the sole exception of Turkiye. One obvious interim conclusion at the intelligence level is that the degree of Syrian military dependency on Iranian, Hezbollah and Russian forces, meaning the inherent weakness of the Assad regime, was vastly underestimated by not only Israel but practically everyone else.
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The rebels are led by Hayat Tahrir a-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda that survived the years since the Qaeda defeat in Iraq and Syria by sheltering in the northwest corner of Syria under the auspices of Turkiye, which is led by the Erdogan government with its Islamist leanings. But the rebel coalition includes non-Islamist Arabs as well as non-Arabs: Kurds and Druze.
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The dust has not even begun to settle yet, so this is a very preliminary assessment of the strategic consequences for Israel and for additional regional and global actors.
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Yossi Alpher's Death Tango: Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat and Three Fateful Days in March
"Anyone seeking to understand how Israelis and Palestinians traded the hopes of Oslo for something approaching hopelessness is well-advised to read this book. With penetrating analysis and elegant prose, Yossi Alpher has told the gripping story of three days nearly two decades ago that continue to haunt would-be peacemakers. Yossi’s faithful readers will not be disappointed with his latest effort."
Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, Bard College
"A riveting account of the crucial days in March 2002 when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was profoundly changed for the worse. The peace camp has never recovered from those wrenching days, and we live now without any hope of a just settlement. Alpher is a highly respected expert who has spent decades studying this conflict from both sides."
Bruce Riedel, Director of the Brookings Intelligence Project
"A critical assessment of a key period in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict never before presented in such detail. The best and most capable players at the executive and political levels proved unable to forge any resolution, final or partial, because both parties continued to maintain an insurmountable gulf between themselves. This is a MUST read for anyone daring to tackle the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and of Israel-Arab relations in general."
Efraim Halevy, former Head of the Mossad (1998-2002)
Oraib Khader and Avi Bar-On are youngish Palestinian and Israeli bachelors with security experience, readiness to do business with one another, a shared fondness for women and money, and total cynicism about the lack of peace between their two peoples.
Oraib and Avi can never become true friends: the cultural and political gaps are too wide. But as they confront a failed peace process and a bleak peace future, they readily become business partners: shady business that exploits a lot of naïve international peace aspirations.
As Oraib sums up on a visit to Sarpsborg, Norway, where the ultimately-failed Oslo peace talks were held, “There is a lesson here for those who still doggedly and hopelessly pursue a two-state solution in the Middle East. Get smart. Get out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace business. Step back and let the Jews and Arabs screw one another while making money.”