Column: New Jewish Narrative
March 16, 2026
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Q. Is it bad intelligence or bad leadership that causes Trump and Netanyahu to promise everything from regime change in Iran to a ‘new Middle East’?
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A. If I thought Trump and Netanyahu were good leaders I might agree that they were led astray by bad intel. But because the leadership is so inept and because there is no easy way for the public to verify the accuracy of clandestine intelligence projections, we have to assume that both are wanting.​
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Q. For example, where?
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A. Let’s take the capacity and motivation of the Iranian public to topple the regime. The public took to the streets a few months ago because of catastrophic economic conditions in Iran. How did that protest inspire US and Israeli politicians, journalists and academics (not all!) to predict that the Islamic Republic would now go the way of the Shah’s regime 47 years ago?
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The Iranian protester-public had no leaders, no ideology and no means of command and communication. It was opposed by the regime’s armed, trained and loyal forces. From abroad, the late Shah’s exiled son and the president of the United States (“help is on the way”) egged the protest on. It failed. Nothing happened. Thousands paid with their lives. Was the intelligence so bad? Were the US and Israeli leaders so ignorant? Or were those leaders simply smugly engaging in ‘spin’ designed to nourish their political agendas?
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Here is Netanyahu’s most recent national security adviser, Tzahi HaNegbi, just this Sunday, predicting that “This has never before in history been attempted, but when the Iranian masses get the signal to leave their homes in order to remove the regime, the American and Israeli air forces can give them real-time close support in intelligence and attack from the air.” Really? How is that going to work? The first drone coup d’etat? Never before in history?
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Meanwhile, the blatant lies foisted on the American and Israeli publics after last June’s triumphant Twelve-Day War became clear when the same leaders, Netanyahu and Trump, now revealed that--surprise!!--Iran’s nuclear program had in fact not been decimated and its missile reserves had not been destroyed back then. Who knew the truth back in June? Who knew the truth two weeks ago when suddenly Iran, which until recently was assessed to need about a year to produce a deliverable nuclear weapon, now supposedly needed only a month and had to be stopped on an emergency basis.
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Yossi Alpher's Death Tango: Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat and Three Fateful Days in March
"Anyone seeking to understand how Israelis and Palestinians traded the hopes of Oslo for something approaching hopelessness is well-advised to read this book. With penetrating analysis and elegant prose, Yossi Alpher has told the gripping story of three days nearly two decades ago that continue to haunt would-be peacemakers. Yossi’s faithful readers will not be disappointed with his latest effort."
Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, Bard College
"A riveting account of the crucial days in March 2002 when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was profoundly changed for the worse. The peace camp has never recovered from those wrenching days, and we live now without any hope of a just settlement. Alpher is a highly respected expert who has spent decades studying this conflict from both sides."
Bruce Riedel, Director of the Brookings Intelligence Project
"A critical assessment of a key period in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict never before presented in such detail. The best and most capable players at the executive and political levels proved unable to forge any resolution, final or partial, because both parties continued to maintain an insurmountable gulf between themselves. This is a MUST read for anyone daring to tackle the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and of Israel-Arab relations in general."
Efraim Halevy, former Head of the Mossad (1998-2002)
Oraib Khader and Avi Bar-On are youngish Palestinian and Israeli bachelors with security experience, readiness to do business with one another, a shared fondness for women and money, and total cynicism about the lack of peace between their two peoples.
Oraib and Avi can never become true friends: the cultural and political gaps are too wide. But as they confront a failed peace process and a bleak peace future, they readily become business partners: shady business that exploits a lot of naïve international peace aspirations.
As Oraib sums up on a visit to Sarpsborg, Norway, where the ultimately-failed Oslo peace talks were held, “There is a lesson here for those who still doggedly and hopelessly pursue a two-state solution in the Middle East. Get smart. Get out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace business. Step back and let the Jews and Arabs screw one another while making money.”