Column: New Jewish Narrative
April 6, 2026
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Q. What is wrong with Israel’s war strategy? Can we at this point in time draw some conclusions at the strategic level?
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A. The drawbacks and disasters-in-the-making are too obvious to be swept under the carpet any longer. The problems are national and historic in nature. The point of departure for examining them is October 7, 2023. By not launching a probing inquiry into what went wrong that day, the Netanyahu government and the security establishment are delivering a host of strategic disasters.​
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Q. That’s a heavy allegation. Since the intelligence failure is what triggered October 7, start there. What new failures did it beget?
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A. Let’s start with Israel’s north as a case study. Remember Prime Minister Netanyahu declaring triumphantly around late 2025 “Hezbollah has collapsed. . . . it is on its knees. We’re on our way to a giant victory. . . . We are now a global power.” Fast forward to last week: Northern Command commander Major General Rafi Milo meets with residents of Israel’s northern border settlements, who have been under constant missile and rocket siege for over a month, and acknowledges apologetically that IDF Intelligence underestimated Hezbollah’s fighting ability. It will take months to push back Hezbollah. The northern Israelis returned to their battered homes along the Lebanon border too soon after the previous round.
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What happened here? Both the national political and the national intelligence leadership failed spectacularly to address an issue of vital national-security importance: the Hezbollah threat from the north. They demonstrated they had learned nothing from the October 7 intelligence debacle. Worse, there is no indication whatsoever that the politicians have learned to stop boasting and bragging, Trump-style, or that the intelligence chiefs are cleaning house.
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I find myself referring back 60 years to identify a relevant frame of reference: the behavior of the Arab world led by Egypt’s Abd al-Nasser, lying, boasting and deluding its way into the disaster (for it) of the 1967 Six-Day War. Yes, I’m comparing us to the Arab world at its worst.
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Yossi Alpher's Death Tango: Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat and Three Fateful Days in March
"Anyone seeking to understand how Israelis and Palestinians traded the hopes of Oslo for something approaching hopelessness is well-advised to read this book. With penetrating analysis and elegant prose, Yossi Alpher has told the gripping story of three days nearly two decades ago that continue to haunt would-be peacemakers. Yossi’s faithful readers will not be disappointed with his latest effort."
Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, Bard College
"A riveting account of the crucial days in March 2002 when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was profoundly changed for the worse. The peace camp has never recovered from those wrenching days, and we live now without any hope of a just settlement. Alpher is a highly respected expert who has spent decades studying this conflict from both sides."
Bruce Riedel, Director of the Brookings Intelligence Project
"A critical assessment of a key period in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict never before presented in such detail. The best and most capable players at the executive and political levels proved unable to forge any resolution, final or partial, because both parties continued to maintain an insurmountable gulf between themselves. This is a MUST read for anyone daring to tackle the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and of Israel-Arab relations in general."
Efraim Halevy, former Head of the Mossad (1998-2002)
Oraib Khader and Avi Bar-On are youngish Palestinian and Israeli bachelors with security experience, readiness to do business with one another, a shared fondness for women and money, and total cynicism about the lack of peace between their two peoples.
Oraib and Avi can never become true friends: the cultural and political gaps are too wide. But as they confront a failed peace process and a bleak peace future, they readily become business partners: shady business that exploits a lot of naïve international peace aspirations.
As Oraib sums up on a visit to Sarpsborg, Norway, where the ultimately-failed Oslo peace talks were held, “There is a lesson here for those who still doggedly and hopelessly pursue a two-state solution in the Middle East. Get smart. Get out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace business. Step back and let the Jews and Arabs screw one another while making money.”