Oct 6, 2025
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Q. The new Israel-Hamas agreement is indeed a strategic turning point. But in what direction?
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A. Let’s begin with the nuts and bolts, understand what we’re dealing with in the days ahead, and leave President Trump’s ‘great days in civilization’ for later.
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Q. But Trump’s twenty points are intended to create a “New Gaza”. . . .
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A. Not so fast. Points three through eight have a fair chance of being carried out, in full or at least in part. This means that the negotiations launched in Egypt on Monday this week stand a good chance of catalyzing a partial Israeli withdrawal, a ceasefire, hostage release by Hamas and prisoner release by Israel, and a major humanitarian aid effort.
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Note that there is nothing new here: no New Gaza. Israel, Hamas and a variety of international actors have carried out these activities on a smaller scale at various points over the past two years. Israel has already ‘withdrawn’ once within the bounds of the Gaza Strip, and can readily do so again. Hence points three through eight look feasible and welcome, albeit not earthshaking.
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Q. And points one, two, and nine through 20?
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A. These are also desirable and welcome, but are not yet being discussed by the parties. In many ways they are copied from previous Israeli-Palestinian peace plans. Deradicalization and redevelopment (points one and two) are the motherhood and apple pie of those plans. So are (points nine through 20) temporary transitional governance, economic development, demilitarization, regional guarantees, an International Stabilization Force, even a “credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination” and a proper Israeli-Palestinian dialogue.
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None of this can happen right away. None of it may happen if, because of some act of terror or errant bomb, the parties go back to fighting.
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Looking for a spoiler who will thwart “New Gaza”? Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas’s junior terrorist partner in this war, is not even mentioned in the 20 Point Plan. Another spoiler? Hamas has not hidden its dislike of those points that call for its disarmament, the International Stabilization Force, demilitarization of Gaza, etc. Yet a third spoiler? Netanyahu’s Kahanist coalition partners and some of his own Likudniks could bolt over implementation of anything beyond Point 8. West Bank-based settler supporters of that Kahanist faction could perpetrate a provocative atrocity.
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Then too, beyond a stipulation that hostages will be released within three days, there is no timetable for the 20 points. Given both Netanyahu-government and Hamas hedging and hesitancy, that means that a lot depends on President Trump and his team maintaining the pressure and the momentum.
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Yossi Alpher's Death Tango: Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat and Three Fateful Days in March
"Anyone seeking to understand how Israelis and Palestinians traded the hopes of Oslo for something approaching hopelessness is well-advised to read this book. With penetrating analysis and elegant prose, Yossi Alpher has told the gripping story of three days nearly two decades ago that continue to haunt would-be peacemakers. Yossi’s faithful readers will not be disappointed with his latest effort."
Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, Bard College
"A riveting account of the crucial days in March 2002 when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was profoundly changed for the worse. The peace camp has never recovered from those wrenching days, and we live now without any hope of a just settlement. Alpher is a highly respected expert who has spent decades studying this conflict from both sides."
Bruce Riedel, Director of the Brookings Intelligence Project
"A critical assessment of a key period in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict never before presented in such detail. The best and most capable players at the executive and political levels proved unable to forge any resolution, final or partial, because both parties continued to maintain an insurmountable gulf between themselves. This is a MUST read for anyone daring to tackle the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and of Israel-Arab relations in general."
Efraim Halevy, former Head of the Mossad (1998-2002)
Oraib Khader and Avi Bar-On are youngish Palestinian and Israeli bachelors with security experience, readiness to do business with one another, a shared fondness for women and money, and total cynicism about the lack of peace between their two peoples.
Oraib and Avi can never become true friends: the cultural and political gaps are too wide. But as they confront a failed peace process and a bleak peace future, they readily become business partners: shady business that exploits a lot of naïve international peace aspirations.
As Oraib sums up on a visit to Sarpsborg, Norway, where the ultimately-failed Oslo peace talks were held, “There is a lesson here for those who still doggedly and hopelessly pursue a two-state solution in the Middle East. Get smart. Get out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace business. Step back and let the Jews and Arabs screw one another while making money.”